West Virginia Manufacturers Association

Capital Connection: The Final Quarter- October 6th, 2008

Battle for the U.S. Senate:

The current political environment is getting worse for Republicans as the election nears. Congressional job approval ratings, at 15% last week, do not bode well for any incumbent in a tough election this year. Some Republicans, such as incumbent Senators in Mississippi and Kentucky, who had been considered to be in “safe” seats, now have reason to believe their fortunes could change if the mood of the voters toward the current Administration and Congress continues to sour.

Mississippi

Incumbent Senator Roger Wicker (R) was appointed by Governor Haley Barbour to fill the seat of Senator Trent Lott (R), who resigned at the end of 2007. Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) is challenging Wicker on the ballot in November to fill the remaining four years of Lott’s term.
While Mississippi has voted consistently Republican at the federal level in recent decades and the seat of the state’s senior Senator, Thad Cochran (R), also on the ballot for re-election this year, is considered to be safe, the Wicker race has been a key target for Democrats. In May 2008, Democrat Travis Childers won the special election to replace Wicker in the House of Representatives. The contest was expected to be a Republican victory and ended up as the second special election loss for Republicans in the South this year.
Wicker has maintained a steady lead, but should the prevailing winds continue to beat down the standing of Republicans across the country, this is a seat that could give Democrats another Senate win on Election Day. According to a September 30 Rasmussen poll, Wicker is leading by only two points, 49% to 47%.

Kentucky

In May of this year, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R) led his challenger, business executive Bruce Lunsford (D), by 12 points. He remained well ahead throughout the summer months. However, the race has tightened in the last few weeks, with a recent Mason-Dixon poll showing McConnell leading by only one point, 45% to 44%. Still, a Rasmussen survey conducted September 30 shows McConnell with a nine-point lead, 51% to 42%.
McConnell is known for his mastery of the rules of the Senate and for being an able leader for Republicans in the minority. He has also been a strong advocate for business and manufacturing during his tenure in the Senate, standing up for lower taxes, increased domestic energy supply and expanded free trade.
His leadership position makes him a key target for Democrats who think the current political climate makes this a contest they can win. At the very least, they want to keep the capable GOP leader at home to be sure he cannot be as helpful to other Republicans if he didn’t have a strong challenge. Liberal independent groups have been running nasty ads against McConnell and the intensity of attacks in the state will only increase in the remaining weeks of the campaign.

Colorado

Colorado moved into the blue column this week as it moved toward Obama in a number of recent polls. A September 23 Insider Advantage/Poll Position survey showed Obama leading by nine points, 50% to 41%. A later poll conducted by Fox News/Rasmussen showed Obama leading by only one point, 49% to 48%.
McCain has not written it off, however, and campaigned in Colorado at the end of last week. Don’t be surprised if this state stays in play until the end.

Florida

Florida became the poster child for voting irregularities and turned into the final battleground in the 2000 election. In 2004, many feared Florida would again be the decider when Bush sought re-election. In the end, Bush won the state handily with a five-point margin.
Until recently, the state had again been trending Republican in the presidential race. Last week, however, Obama overtook McCain’s lead in Florida by a slight but increasing margin, with most polls giving him a three- to four-point advantage. The latest CNN/Time survey shows Obama leading by four points, 51% to 47%.

Indiana

Red-state Indiana has become a toss-up in the presidential election this year. George Bush won the state by margins above five points in both 2000 and 2004, but recent polls show an increasingly tight race as Obama gains ground here.
McCain still holds a slight lead. Last week’s South Bend Tribune/WSBT poll shows the Republican ahead by one point, 46% to 45%.

Michigan

Michigan has moved definitively into the Obama column after the McCain campaign’s decision to pull out of the state last week, canceling TV advertising and moving most staff to other parts of the country.
In major surveys in the last two weeks, Obama maintained a strong lead. The last independent poll conducted by the Detroit Free Press shows Obama leading by 13 points, 51% to 38%.

Minnesota

Minnesota remains a toss-up as McCain gains some ground here. Still, Obama maintained his lead. Last week’s CNN/Time poll shows Obama leading by eleven points, 54% to 43%.

Nevada

The presidential contest in Nevada is close. While McCain had maintained a very slight lead, Obama gained the advantage in recent surveys. The latest CNN/Time poll shows Obama leading by four points, 51% to 47%.

New Hampshire

Obama increased his lead in New Hampshire last week. An October 1 Rasmussen poll shows him leading by ten points, 53% to 43%.

North Carolina

McCain’s lead diminished last week as some polls showed Obama pulling ahead by a small margin. Still, survey results were mixed. A Rasmussen poll showed Obama leading by three points, 50% to 47%. An American Research Group poll shows McCain ahead by three points, 49% to 46%.

Ohio

Obama remains ahead by a slight margin. An Insider Advantage/Poll Position survey conducted last week shows Obama leading by two points, 47% to 45%. In the previous poll conducted by the same group a week earlier, the two candidates were tied at 46%.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania appears to be moving solidly toward the Obama ticket. The Institute of Public Policy at Muhlenberg College released a poll that shows Obama leading by nine points, 50% to 41%.

Virginia

McCain has lost some ground in Virginia, with Obama pulling even in polling averages. The most recent poll conducted by Mason-Dixon shows McCain still leading by three points, 48% to 45%. However, a CNN/Time survey also conducted last week shows Obama leading by nine points, 53% to 44%.

Vice Presidential Debate: Politics over Substance

Personality, not policy, drew the most attention in Thursday’s vice presidential debate in St. Louis.

Governor Sarah Palin proved herself an able debater with a firm command of the facts, reinvigorating Republicans worried about her viability as a candidate. She connected with voters in a very direct manner, speaking in a way that real people in the real world understand. She was also prepared, which most pundits did not expect, particularly after the Couric interviews.

Senator Biden also did well, avoiding any major slip-ups and achieving the campaign goal of repeatedly connecting Senator McCain to President Bush. And although he is clearly quite knowledgeable, his answers were peppered with Washington-speak - something Americans aren't particularly enamored by these days.  For instance, not too many voters will understand what a "MRAP" or "madrassa" is.

On domestic policy, the exchanges on energy and the environment proved the most useful. Governor Palin called for an “all of the above approach” on energy, including expanded domestic produc-tion, conservation, and development of alternative forms of energy. She also clearly stated her support for caps on carbon dioxide production, the kind of policy we saw this year in the Lieberman-Warner climate-change bill.

Senator Biden was more vociferous in blaming global warming on human activity, knocked Senator McCain for voting against alternative energy – although in what capacity, it wasn’t clear – and stated, “Barack Obama believes by investing in clean coal and safe nuclear, we can not only create jobs in wind and solar here in the United States, we can export it.”

Biden’s comments ran contrary to his recent disavowal of clean coal technology on a campaign rope line in Ohio, an inconsistency Palin was quick to note. Given the electoral importance of coal-states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, this is a topic we’ll see more of.

While Obama likely had a slight advantage last week in the presidential debate, Palin clearly struck a chord with everyday Americans and will likely be considered the "winner" by those who watched. Once the media finishes their "analysis," however, the perception of who "won" may be different in the minds of those who did not watch than those who did.

Next up:
The Presidential debate Tuesday in a town hall format, Belmont University, Nashville, TN.

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While many predictions estimate that Democrats will pick up five to six Senate seats in November, it is not unthinkable they could expand their numbers by as many as ten seats. The closeness of the contests in Mississippi and Kentucky underscores the need for manufacturing employees to be educated and engaged in their local elections.

Election Day is four weeks away and the stakes are high. Members of the business community must ensure their employees have the tools and resources to make informed decisions. The NAM provides everything you need to educate your employees.

Visit www.nam.org/gotv for voter registration materials and election information and to check out the candidates’ responses to the NAM 2008 Candidate Questionnaire.

Jay Timmons
Executive Vice President
National Association of Manufacturers